After end of 48th match of IPL 2014 all the teams completed 12 matches each. With just 8 matches left at group stage fate of only 3 teams is clear. DD is out of reckoning, while KXIP and CSK are in the knockout. Other 5 teams are still in contention for the remaining 2 positions. Three teams are fighting to get to 14 points, where KKR and RR are already there. Will it be smooth ride for KKR and RR, or some of the other three, specially MI can catch them!!
KXIP and CSK Already IN
KXIP with 18 points and CSK with 16 points are untouchable. Only KKR and RR have the possibility of going above them, but that does not throw them out of top four.
KKR and RR on 14 Points
A win for any of them gets them to the safe zone. But, while KKR is on a winning streak, RR is stuck on 14 points. KKR plays RCB and SRH. RR plays KXIP and MI.
KKR may be safe as SRH does not appear to be strong. But RR is certainly on patchy path as they may end up losing both. The only thing that can save them is their very good NRR which can make them 4th even if they lose remaining 2 matches, although they must not lose with huge margins.
SRH, RCB and MI on 10 points
The three teams first need to win their remaining two matches, then need to improve their NRR and turn it into positive, and then pray for at least one of the two teams, KKR and RR to lose both their matches.
Fixtures for three teams
- RCB plays KKR and CSK.
SRH plays CSK and KKR.
MI plays DD and RR.
Among these three MI has the best chance, as defeating DD appears an easier option at this stage for any other team, and their team appears to have find the right momemntum. But, they need to win big, then expect KXIP to defeat RR, which is possible considering KXIP is playing at home, and then they will have the fate in their hand as they play RR in the last match of the Group Stage for all teams.
RCB and SRH play the same teams, so they too can control their fate. Both play their competitor KKR. If both win, KKR remains at 14, and then they play CSK. That appears to be the tough task for SRH to make it 14, still they have mathematical probability.
Considering their very low NRR, both team needs to win big in both matches. That makes their job more difficult.
KKR has the best chance for the semifinals. But for the fourth position, we may need to wait till the last game of the group stage of IPL 7th edition. MI and RR have the best chance after KKR, and both of them will play the last match of group stage.
RCB and SRH have mathematical chance, but the way they are playing and with the very low NRR they have, even with two wins they may not get ahead of KKR or RCB on NRR, and on top of that expecting them to win against KKR and CSK, both is not justified based on current performances. They may win one, but not both.