Before the official Rest Day for all teams on March 2, Group A has almost confirmed that in its final standings after completion of all the group matches New Zealand, Australia and Sri Lanka will finish as top 3 teams in sequence. Between England and Bangladesh, one of them must finish the group with 3 wins. Afghanistan has impressed but a very weak Scotland means, the match between England and Bangladesh will decide the 4th team from the Group A. Here is why and how!!
Each team plays 6 matches at group stage. Australia and Bangladesh have shared the points, much to the benefit of Bangladesh. 12 matches are completed in Group A. New Zealand, Sri Lanka and England have played 4 each, while Bangladesh, Australia, Afghanistan and Scotland has played 3 each.
New Zealand has won all 4 and leads with 8 points.
Sri Lanka has lost to New Zealand but remaining 3 and have 6 points.
Bangladesh and Australia has 3 points each after 1 win, 1 loss and 1 No result.
Afghanistan has won the game against Scotland, but lost other two games and has 2 points.
England has lost 3 and won 1 but placed at 6th with 2 points.
Scotland has lost all three so far.
- New Zealand completes all win campaign defeating Afghanistan and Bangladesh at home.
Australia defeats Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Scotland to finish 2nd.
Sri Lanka loses to Australia but wins vs Scotland to finish 3rd.
Bangladesh and England win vs Scotland and Afghanistan, respectively.But they have a match against each other.
Afghanistan and Scotland go on a losing spree now. Afghanistan has been impressive but winning against both the hosts may be too much to expect. But if they surprise already nervous England, and Bangladesh loses all then they have a chance.
Expected Final Points Tally
Unless points are shared in any of the remaining 10 matches of the group, this is the expected points tally.
- New Zealand 6 wins = 12 points
Australia 4 wins = 9 points
Sri Lanka 4 wins = 8 points
England/Bangladesh = 3 wins??
Afghanistan 1 win = 2 points
Scotland no wins = 0
Bangladesh vs England on March 8 Decides 4th Team
Bangladesh has 3 points in 3 matches, while England has 2 points in 4 matches. Interestingly, in the past World Cup rivalry both have won a match each.
England can defeat Scotland in their last match and reach 4 points. Bangladesh can defeat Scotland, but will find it difficult against hosts New Zealand. But, if they defeat England before that, they will already register 3 wins and will have 7 points. That is enough for them to reach quarterfinals, finishing 4th in the group.
England, on the other hand must win both the matches. That means besides Afghanistan they must defeat Bangladesh. If they do, unless Bangladesh shocks New Zealand in their last match, England will finish 4th with 6 points.
Bangladesh will not mind another No result as that means England fails, they pass.
Overall, between the two the team with 3 wins will reach the quarterfinal as the 4th team.