IPL 2013: Increasing Competition Makes Even 18 Points Not Good for Semifinals

After May 3rd IPL 2013 has seen 47 matches. With 26 more matches to be played, there are 7 teams contesting for the top 4 positions. With 18 points earlier being considered to be the guaranteed marks to reach the semifinal, CSK being at 18 is still not in semifinal, as four more teams can reach 18 points and then NRR may play the key role.

Pune Warriors is the only team to be knocked out as even if they win all remaining matches now they can reach only 14 points, which would be 2 points less than the 16 points that may probably see one team sneaking through to the semifinals. So which three teams can join CSK in the knockout now!!

CSK has 5 matches remaining which virtually guarantees them a place in semifinal as with current form they can easily win at least one of them to seal their spot in the knock out. But there are 7 others teams contesting for the remaining three positions.

11 Matches team: RCB has better Chance, KKR has Tough Road
RCB and KKR has played 11 matches each. RCB has 14 points and two more wins can get them into the semifinal. Easy for them as they have two matches remaining at home where they have already won all the 6 matches. KKR has 8 points and must win the remaining 5 matches that makes their task tougher as they have only 2 games at home, and they have poor record in Away matches.

Team with 12 points: RR, MI, SH
Rajasthan Royals, Mumbai Indians and Sunrisers Hyderabad has 12 points in 10 matches each with 6 wins and 4 losses each. SH has the weakest position with negative NRR. But if they win 3 of their remaining 6 matches, NRR does not matter. And they have 5 more matches at home, their fortress. That makes their chances very strong.

Mumbai Indians have the best chance with 5 matches remaining at home out of which they must win 3. RR also has good chances as they can win 3 more games at home, which has been their unconquered fortress so far.

Teams with 10 matches: Kings XI, Delhi Daredevils
Kings XI has 8 points and despite looking promising they have been inconsistent, specially in controlling the opposite batsmen. They must win 5 of the remaining 6 that appears tough as they have neither played good at home, nor away. Same with Delhi Daredevils who are in a must win situation like KKR, and must win the remaining 6 matches to reach 18 points.

Weak Chances
KKR and DD must win all their matches and their performances of 11 and 10 matches, respectively does not show that confidence. The league toppers of 2012 are on their way out. At best they may probably prove show stoppers for some other aspirants.

Strong Chances Due to Home Matches: RCB, SH, RR, MI

    Sunrisers Hyderabad: 2 Away, 4 Home
    RCB: 3 Away, 2 Home
    MI: 4 Home, 2 Away
    RR: 3 Home, 3 Away

The wins at Home would see all these teams reach 18 points or cross it. Interestingly all are undefeated so far at home and have enough matches at home that can take them to Knock outs even if they win enough at home.

CSK visits RR, SH, RCB and MI. Interestingly CSK has won all the Away matches so far. They have the best record in Away matches. And they may being the decisive factor in deciding the remaining three positions, as having won all the away matches so far, they are the biggest threat to the hopes of all these four teams as a loss against CSK at home jeopardizes their chance, at least RCB cannot afford it.

Overall interesting situation but considering there respective performances so far CSK, SH, MI and RR would be the semifinalists.

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