India’s victory against Netherlands was celebrated as entry to Quarterfinal. 6 teams are in contention of entering the quarterfinal. And you guess it right, India is not assured a confirm berth yet in QF. Let us see what the calculation says.
Group B never had that easy as Group A appears by results. Here the minnows have already created two upset and got themselves in the race for Quarterfinal. Overall, if India is unable to defeat South Africa, only the last match of Group Stage will decide the 4th team from Group B, when India plays West Indies.
Magical Number 8
The defeat of South Africa against England, and the defeat of England against Ireland and Bangladesh have left many possibilities in Group B. Now 8 is the magical number. Whichever team reaches 8 points, is assured of crossing India (and England) and assured a place in Quarterfinal. Ironically, except England and Netherlands, remaining 5 teams can still reach the magical number.
Now on the eve of India and South Africa, only Netherlands is out of the race. Other 6 teams have following matches to come:
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Eng vs WI
WI vs Eng and Ind
Ind Vs WI and SA
SA vs Ind, Ire, Ban
Ire vs SA, Neth
Ban vs SA, Neth
England Must Win Last Match
England on 5 points, are in a must-win situation in their last match against West Indies to get a hope for the QF. Remember that win alone does not guarantee a place for them. England will reach 7 points then.
West Indies must win one more match
West Indies placed on 6 points plays 2 more matches. If they defeat England, India does not need to win any match. England is out and India is into the QF. But, if they lose against England (which England can, considering their win against South Africa), they must win their last match against India to get 8 points and enter QF, leaving India tied with England on 7 points.
Ireland and Bangladesh Must Upset South Africa
Ireland and Bangladesh have a similar scenario. Both of them are on 4 points. Both have a comparatively easy match against Netherlands that if they win (which they should) will take both to 6 points. But, the big block is their 2nd match. Both of them face South Africa. If one of them creates the upset, the team will be on 8 points and in the Quarterfinal. If both defeat South Africa (which may be a very improbably scenario), then both are in Quarterfinal and South Africa is out of the tournament.
South Africa Needs 2 win out of 3 Matches
South Africa plays 3 more matches. One of them against India, remaining against Ireland and Bangladesh. They are expected to win at least two of these. That would take them to 8 points and confirm QF seat. If they lose two of them, they will be tied on 6 points with either Bangladesh or Ireland, and then Net run rate would decide who will join Bangladesh/Ireland (team that defeats South Africa), West Indies and India in the Quarterfinal. Considering current NRR of teams, even then their place is guaranted in QF, unless the minnows post huge victories.
India Must Win 1 Match Or Wait for Other Results
India was the first among all nations to be guaranted a virtual place in Quarterfrinal after reaaching 7 points. Yet, if they have to confirm their QF place on their own, they must defeat either South Africa or West Indies (in their remaining two matches). If they cannot, a lot of combination and permutation will decide. They have two tough matches. Against South Africa, their world cup record of losing both matches and having equal team strength does not make them favorite to win. Against West Indies, before the tournament started everyone had good chance. But, the way the Carribean team has evolved, they appear to be one of the best. Effectively India needs just one win to confirm the QF berth. But, they might end up losing both the matches and depend on other teams to help them reach the QF.
Most Important Match For India
If India does not win both the matches, then their most awaited matches will be South Africa vs Ireland and South Africa vs Bangladesh, where more than South Africans, Indians will pray for South African victory.
Resulting Points Tally
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If India loses both matches it remains at 7 points.
England defeats West Indies to tie with India on 7 points.
West Indies, if they defeat India, reach 8 points.
SA, if they win 2 of 3 matches, reach 8 points.
Ban or Ire, if they cannot defeat SA, remain at 6 points.
Ban or Ire, if they defeat SA, reach 8 points.
Scenario 1
If Bangladesh or Ireland can create the big upset by winning against South Africa, India or England will be fighting for 4th spot on the basis of Net Run Rate (provided India does not win from now, and England wins).
Scenario 2
If West Indies defeats England, without winning a single match India is in the next round.
Best Scenario
India will defeat one of their last two matches (South Africa or West Indies) and easily defuse all hoax bombs that are positioned everywhere to force their early exit from the home tournament.
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