IPL 2014: Is CSK Already in Semifinal!!

16 points already with 4 more games to go might tempt us to call Chennai Super Kings already in semifinal. In one way they are, as they cannot lose remaining 4 matches based on their current performances. But statistically, if they lose all four, then are they safe? The answer involves lot of calculations between remaining 6 teams, considering Delhi Daredevils is already out of the race. The final analysis shows 5 teams can reach 16 points. Check how and which teams.

What if CSK Loses Remaining 4 matches

It remains at 16 and NRR will go down that may matter the most if they remain at 16 points.
If CSK lose remaining 4 matches, RCB will win 2, while KKR and SRH will win a match each.

How are Other Teams Placed After Match 38

KXIP needs 2 wins in 5 matches. They play one each vs SRH, MI, RR and two vs DD.
RR needs 2 wins in 4 matches. They have 2 vs MI, 1 each vs KXIP and DD.
RCB must win all 4. They play 2 vs CSK, and remaining 2 games vs SRH and KKR.
KKR and SRH need to win 4 of their remaining 5 games.
MI must win all 5. They will play 2 vs RR, and 1 each vs KKR, KXIP and DD.

Almost at 16 points: KXIP and RR

1. Kings XI can reach 16 with a win and that they can achieve in one of the two games they play against Delhi Daredevils.
2. Rajasthan Royals need 2 wins in 4 matches. They can win against DD and KXIP, and lose two against MI.

That leaves KKR, RCB, MI and SRH to fight.

Must Win Teams for 16 Points: RCB and MI
RCB and MI are in must win position. One loss and they cannot reach 16 points. They do not face each other.

1. RCB: Even if they win both matches against CSK, they must defeat SRH and KKR too.
2. MI: They must defeat KXIP, DD, KKR and RR (in two matches).

An Extra Game to Reach 16 Points: SRH and KKR
Both are at 8 points with 5 games spare. Both will play twice against each other. Even if they share a win each, they must win their remaining three games.

1. KKR plays CSK, RCB and MI.
2. SRH plays CSK, KXIP and RCB.

Calculations

1. If SRH loses one and wins one against KKR, it must defeat RCB too.
2. If RCB loses a match, it is out of race for 16 points.
3. If RCB wins all then SRH and KKR are out of race, unless one of them wins both the matches when they play each other.
4. If KKR loses one against RCB/SRH, it must win all including the one against MI.
5. MI cannot afford to lose any match.

Who Else Can Reach 16 Points!
So besides CSK, KXIP, and RR, there are at least two more teams that can reach 16 points.

1. SRH and KKR both can lose one match and still reach 16 points.
2. If SRH and KKR lose to RCB, and win rest of their matches, then one of them can reach, with RCB who needs to win all.
3. If MI defeats KKR too, in all win performances, then based on must win situation, either KKR/SRH/RCB will join it at 16 points.

Conclusion: CSK Still Needs a Win More
One more win certainly gives Chennai Super Kings a confirmed place in the knockouts, as based on current Points Tally only 4 teams can reach 18 points. Besides CSK, KXIP and RR, only KKR and SRH have the chance to reach 18 points. But as both of them play each other, only one of them can reach 18 points. Both can reach 17 points though with 4 wins and an abandoned match.

At 16 points, so far the place of CSK is not yet confirmed for knockouts. Overall despite having 8 teams and 14 matches per team only in IPL 2014, the poor performance of DD means, the cut off mark for semifinal even after 10th matches of teams will be 18 points, and not 16.